Interesting post about Kyle from the Weather Network
0 Comments Published by CBEMN on Saturday, September 27, 2008 at 7:23 AM.
"While Kyle's eventual impact is still unclear, this is an important storm that needs to be taken seriously. Setting aside the meteorology for a second, the parallels with Juan are eerie. Both Kyle and Juan formed on Thursday September 25, and Kyle looks to make its impact during Sunday night, at almost exactly the same time that Hurricane Juan made landfall just west of Halifax.
However, in meteorology, we look at facts, not coincidence. There are similarities between the two storms. Both Juan and Kyle are taking similar tracks moving due north from a position near Bermuda (Juan went east of Bermuda and Kyle is passing to the west). Kyle has the opportunity to strengthen before it hits the cold waters north of the Gulf Stream, just as Juan did 5 years ago.
While the tracks look vaguely similar, there are important differences. The current thinking is that Kyle will have its worst impact in southwestern Nova Scotia and possibly southwestern New Brunswick depending on the exact track Sunday night. Juan had a track that maximized damage in a heavily populated corridor from Halifax to Truro to Charlottetown. Also, even if Kyle continues to strengthen through today and tonight, it will have to move over the chilly water south of Shelburne, NS (blue shading in the picture below) that is 3 degrees cooler than when Juan hit 5 years ago. Tropical cyclones crave heat and moisture, so cooler water is good news for us.
However, the threat with this storm is real and like any tropical system, we are concerned about two impacts - wind and rain. Rainfall is ongoing across sections of the Maritimes today as a frontal system will put down locally heavy amounts through tonight well ahead of Kyle. At this point, it looks like New England has a much better chance of seeing flooding issues related to these systems as opposed to the Maritimes, but western New Brunswick and the Gaspe Pennisula of Quebec may see enough rain through the weekend to cause problems.
Wind is potentially the bigger story. Nobody remembers Juan for its rain, and the danger with Kyle is that this storm strengthens further today and tonight and loses only a little intensity prior to making a landfall Sunday night. The debate about whether Kyle is tropical or not at landfall is moot if the storm is producing wind gusts of 100 to 120 km/h, which is certainly possible just east of its landfall location (best chance for this appears to be in southwestern Nova Scotia based on the current track). With leaves still on deciduous trees, winds of this strength will bring down many trees and cause widespread power outages.
While the current forecast suggests Kyle will not measure up to Juan, this is still a storm that could do significant damage in sections of the Maritimes. I covered Hurricane Juan the night it made landfall in Nova Scotia, and while Kyle may not look as bad at this point, this is the first storm that has looked somewhat similar to that terrible blast of wind 5 years ago this weekend."
However, in meteorology, we look at facts, not coincidence. There are similarities between the two storms. Both Juan and Kyle are taking similar tracks moving due north from a position near Bermuda (Juan went east of Bermuda and Kyle is passing to the west). Kyle has the opportunity to strengthen before it hits the cold waters north of the Gulf Stream, just as Juan did 5 years ago.
While the tracks look vaguely similar, there are important differences. The current thinking is that Kyle will have its worst impact in southwestern Nova Scotia and possibly southwestern New Brunswick depending on the exact track Sunday night. Juan had a track that maximized damage in a heavily populated corridor from Halifax to Truro to Charlottetown. Also, even if Kyle continues to strengthen through today and tonight, it will have to move over the chilly water south of Shelburne, NS (blue shading in the picture below) that is 3 degrees cooler than when Juan hit 5 years ago. Tropical cyclones crave heat and moisture, so cooler water is good news for us.
However, the threat with this storm is real and like any tropical system, we are concerned about two impacts - wind and rain. Rainfall is ongoing across sections of the Maritimes today as a frontal system will put down locally heavy amounts through tonight well ahead of Kyle. At this point, it looks like New England has a much better chance of seeing flooding issues related to these systems as opposed to the Maritimes, but western New Brunswick and the Gaspe Pennisula of Quebec may see enough rain through the weekend to cause problems.
Wind is potentially the bigger story. Nobody remembers Juan for its rain, and the danger with Kyle is that this storm strengthens further today and tonight and loses only a little intensity prior to making a landfall Sunday night. The debate about whether Kyle is tropical or not at landfall is moot if the storm is producing wind gusts of 100 to 120 km/h, which is certainly possible just east of its landfall location (best chance for this appears to be in southwestern Nova Scotia based on the current track). With leaves still on deciduous trees, winds of this strength will bring down many trees and cause widespread power outages.
While the current forecast suggests Kyle will not measure up to Juan, this is still a storm that could do significant damage in sections of the Maritimes. I covered Hurricane Juan the night it made landfall in Nova Scotia, and while Kyle may not look as bad at this point, this is the first storm that has looked somewhat similar to that terrible blast of wind 5 years ago this weekend."
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