Nov. 22-23 snow event

This was an amazingly large nor'easter for this time of year: something we might expect in January rather than November. Approximately 30 cm fell in West Pennant, NS, where I live. The snow consistency was perfect for igloo-building!

Friday/Saturday Snow for Nova Scotia

This is going to be a weather bomb for large parts of Nova Scotia, including Halifax. More to come...

Buoy 44011

The bouys just off the coast of Nova Scotia, in the region around Georges Bank, are picking up some amazing numbers: including a nearly 40 foot wave height. Holy smoke....hold onto your hats. Notice that the wind speed graph doesn't go higher than 70 knots....




Hurricane Kyle

The track is shifting to the east again, which means a potentially greater impact for Nova Scotia than had originally been discussed on a variety of hurricane sites. There are several warnings issued for regions of Nova Scotia, including Halifax. I wouldn't underestimate this storm: the satellites look impressive, bouys in Georges Bank are recording winds of 130 km per hour and the system is getting very close to land. I am hoping for minimal damage along the southern shore but worried that it may be bad when this storm passes. Time will tell. In the meantime, pay attention to the National Hurricane Centre, Canadian Hurricane Centre and Wunderground....times like this I wish that the CHC updated more frequently!

Interesting post about Kyle from the Weather Network

"While Kyle's eventual impact is still unclear, this is an important storm that needs to be taken seriously. Setting aside the meteorology for a second, the parallels with Juan are eerie. Both Kyle and Juan formed on Thursday September 25, and Kyle looks to make its impact during Sunday night, at almost exactly the same time that Hurricane Juan made landfall just west of Halifax.
However, in meteorology, we look at facts, not coincidence. There are similarities between the two storms. Both Juan and Kyle are taking similar tracks moving due north from a position near Bermuda (Juan went east of Bermuda and Kyle is passing to the west). Kyle has the opportunity to strengthen before it hits the cold waters north of the Gulf Stream, just as Juan did 5 years ago.
While the tracks look vaguely similar, there are important differences. The current thinking is that Kyle will have its worst impact in southwestern Nova Scotia and possibly southwestern New Brunswick depending on the exact track Sunday night. Juan had a track that maximized damage in a heavily populated corridor from Halifax to Truro to Charlottetown. Also, even if Kyle continues to strengthen through today and tonight, it will have to move over the chilly water south of Shelburne, NS (blue shading in the picture below) that is 3 degrees cooler than when Juan hit 5 years ago. Tropical cyclones crave heat and moisture, so cooler water is good news for us.
However, the threat with this storm is real and like any tropical system, we are concerned about two impacts - wind and rain. Rainfall is ongoing across sections of the Maritimes today as a frontal system will put down locally heavy amounts through tonight well ahead of Kyle. At this point, it looks like New England has a much better chance of seeing flooding issues related to these systems as opposed to the Maritimes, but western New Brunswick and the Gaspe Pennisula of Quebec may see enough rain through the weekend to cause problems.
Wind is potentially the bigger story. Nobody remembers Juan for its rain, and the danger with Kyle is that this storm strengthens further today and tonight and loses only a little intensity prior to making a landfall Sunday night. The debate about whether Kyle is tropical or not at landfall is moot if the storm is producing wind gusts of 100 to 120 km/h, which is certainly possible just east of its landfall location (best chance for this appears to be in southwestern Nova Scotia based on the current track). With leaves still on deciduous trees, winds of this strength will bring down many trees and cause widespread power outages.
While the current forecast suggests Kyle will not measure up to Juan, this is still a storm that could do significant damage in sections of the Maritimes. I covered Hurricane Juan the night it made landfall in Nova Scotia, and while Kyle may not look as bad at this point, this is the first storm that has looked somewhat similar to that terrible blast of wind 5 years ago this weekend."

Kyle Update

Brett Anderson at Accuweather has posted his forecast of potential impacts from Kyle. I follow Brett's blog regularly and his skills are quite accurate. So his prognosis for the Atlantic coast worries me:
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=anderson

So it looks like Sunday is bring "Kyle"


Let's see what Sunday brings.

Some long-range models have the current disturbance off the Carolinas developing into a storm event that could track up Nova Scotia by Sunday. Let's see what this develops into.




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